Ngemuva kokugqashuka kweMpi YaseRussia-Ukraine, ukwenyuka kwentengo yokudla emhlabeni kwaletha umthelela ekuvikelekeni kokudla emhlabeni, okwenza umhlaba waqaphela ngokugcwele ukuthi umnyombo wokuphepha kokudla uyinkinga yokuthula nentuthuko emhlabeni.
Ngo-2023/24, ehlaselwe amanani entengo aphezulu emikhiqizo yezolimo emhlabeni wonke, inani eliphelele lomhlaba wonke lokusanhlamvu nobhontshisi wesoya lafinyelela irekhodi eliphezulu futhi, okwenza amanani ezinhlobonhlobo zokudla emazweni agxile ezimakethe ngemuva kokufakwa ohlwini lokusanhlamvu okusha kwehle kakhulu.Nokho, ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali okwedlulele okulethwe ukukhishwa kwemali enkulu yi-US Federal Reserve e-Asia, intengo yerayisi emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe yenyuka kakhulu ukuze ifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu ukuze kulawulwe ukwehla kwamandla emali yasekhaya kanye nokulawula ukuthengiswa kwerayisi e-India. .
Ukulawulwa kwezimakethe e-China, India nase-Russia kube nomthelela ekukhuleni kwabo kokukhiqizwa kokudla ngo-2024, kodwa sekukonke, ukukhiqizwa kokudla emhlabeni wonke ngo-2024 kusezingeni eliphezulu.
Kukufanele ukunakwa kakhulu, intengo yegolide yomhlaba wonke iyaqhubeka nokuqopha umlando, ukwehla ngokushesha kwezimali zomhlaba, amanani okudla embulunga yonke okuba khona nokucindezela okukhuphukayo, lapho igebe lokukhiqiza nesidingo saminyaka yonke, amanani entengo okudla angase aqophe umlando. futhi, ngakho isidingo samanje sokunaka kakhulu ukukhiqizwa kokudla, ukuvimbela ukushaqeka.
Ukulima okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke
Ngo-2023/24, indawo yokusanhlamvu emhlabeni izoba ngamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-75.6, okuwukunyuka ngo-0.38% kunonyaka odlule.Umkhiqizo usuphelele ufinyelele kumathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.234, kanti isivuno ngehektha sasingu-4,277 kg/ha, sikhuphuke ngo-2.86% no-3.26% kunonyaka odlule, ngokulandelana.(Isamba esikhishwe ngerayisi sasingamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.989, sikhuphuke ngo-3.63% kusukela ngonyaka odlule.)
Ngo-2023/24, izimo zezulu zezolimo e-Asia, e-Europe nase-United States ngokuvamile zizinhle, futhi amanani entengo okudla aphezulu asekela ukuthuthukiswa kwentshiseko yokutshala kwabalimi, okuletha ukwanda kwesivuno seyunithi nendawo yezitshalo zokudla zomhlaba.
Phakathi kwazo, indawo ehlwanyelwe kakolweni, ummbila nelayisi ngo-2023/24 yayingamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-601.5, phansi ngo-0.56% kusukela ngonyaka odlule;Isamba somkhiqizo sifinyelele amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.79, ukwanda ngo-1.71%;Isivuno endaweni yeyunithi ibe ngu-4638 kg/ha, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-2.28% kunonyaka odlule.
Ukukhiqizwa eYurophu naseNingizimu Melika kwalulama ngemva kwesomiso ngo-2022;Ukwehla kokukhiqizwa kwerayisi eNingizimu naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kube nomthelela omubi ocacile emazweni asathuthuka.
Amanani okudla omhlaba
NgoFebhuwari 2024, inkomba yentengo yokudla eyinhlanganisela yomhlaba wonke * ibingu-US $353 / ton, yehle ngo-2.70% inyanga nenyanga kanye no-13.55% unyaka nonyaka;NgoJanuwari-Februwari 2024, isilinganiso sentengo yokudla ehlanganisiwe emhlabeni wonke sasingu-$357 / ton, sehle ngo-12.39% unyaka nonyaka.
Kusukela ngonyaka omusha wezitshalo (oqala ngoMeyi), amanani okudla aphelele emhlabeni wonke ehlile, futhi intengo eyinhlanganisela eyisilinganiso kusukela ngoMeyi kuya kuFebhuwari ibingamadola angama-370/ton, yehle ngo-11.97% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwazo, inani lentengo elihlanganisiwe likakolweni, ummbila kanye nelayisi ngoFebhuwari lalingama-dollar angu-353/ton, phansi ngo-2.19% inyanga nenyanga kanye no-12.0% unyaka nonyaka;Inani elimaphakathi ngoJanuwari-Februwari 2024 lalingu-$357 / ton, lehle ngo-12.15% unyaka nonyaka;Isilinganiso sonyaka omusha wezitshalo kusukela ngoMeyi kuya kuFebruwari sasingu-$365 / ton, sehle ngo-$365 / ngethani unyaka nonyaka.
Ingqikithi yenani lentengo yokusanhlamvu kanye nenani lentengo yezinhlamvu ezintathu ezinkulu zehle kakhulu onyakeni omusha wezitshalo, okubonisa ukuthi sonke isimo sokuphakelwa onyakeni omusha wezitshalo sibe ngcono.Izintengo zamanje zivame ukwehlela emazingeni okugcina ukubonwa ngoJulayi nango-Agasti 2020, futhi ukuthambekela kokwehla okuqhubekayo kungase kuthinte kabi ukukhiqizwa kokudla emhlabeni wonke onyakeni omusha.
Ukunikezwa kokusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke kanye nebhalansi yesidingo
Ngo-2023/24, inani eliphelele lokusanhlamvu kwerayisi ngemva kwerayisi lalingamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.989, okuwukunyuka ngo-3.63% ngonyaka odlule, kanye nokwenyuka komkhiqizo kwenze intengo yehla kakhulu.
Inani labantu emhlabeni jikelele kulindeleke ukuthi libe izigidigidi eziyisi-8.026, okuwukunyuka ngo-1.04% ngonyaka odlule, futhi ukukhula kokukhiqizwa kokudla nokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kudlula ukukhula kwenani labantu emhlabeni.Ukudla okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke bekungamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.981, kanti amasheya okuphela konyaka ayengamathani ayizigidi ezingama-752, nesici sokuphepha esingu-25.7%.
Umphumela ngomuntu ngamunye ube ngu-372.4 kg, ngo-1.15% ngaphezu konyaka odlule.Mayelana nokusetshenziswa, ukusetshenziswa kwe-ration ngu-157.8 kg, ukudla okudliwayo ngu-136.8 kg, okunye ukusetshenziswa ngu-76.9 kg, kanti ukusetshenziswa okuphelele kungu-371.5 kg.Amakhilogremu.Ukwehla kwamanani kuzoletha ukwanda kokunye ukusetshenziswa, okuzovimbela intengo ukuthi iqhubeke nokuhla esikhathini esizayo.
I-Outlook yokukhiqiza okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke
Ngokwezibalo zamanje zamanani omhlaba jikelele, indawo yokuhlwanyela okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke ngo-2024 ingamahektha ayizigidi ezingu-760, isivuno ngehektha ngalinye ngu-4,393 kg/ha, kanti inani eliphumayo emhlabeni lingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-3,337.Umkhiqizo werayisi wawungamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.09, okuwukunyuka ngo-3.40% kunonyaka odlule.
Ngokwentuthuko yendawo kanye nesivuno endaweni ngayinye yamazwe amakhulu omhlaba, ngo-2030, indawo yokuhlwanyela okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke izoba cishe amahektha ayizigidi ezingu-760, isivuno endaweni ngayinye izoba ngu-4,748 kg / ihektha, futhi ingqikithi yomhlaba wonke. umphumela uzoba amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-3.664, ngaphansi kwenkathi edlule.Ukukhula kancane eShayina, eNdiya naseYurophu kuholele ekwehliseni izilinganiso zokukhiqiza okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke ngendawo.
Ngo-2030, i-India, i-Brazil, i-United States ne-China azobe esengabakhiqizi bokudla abakhulu kunawo wonke emhlabeni.Ngo-2035, indawo yokuhlwanyela okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele kumahektha ayizigidi ezingu-789, ngesivuno esingu-5,318 kg/ha, kanye nokukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke okungamathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-4.194.
Kusukela esimweni samanje, akukho ukusweleka komhlaba otshaliwe emhlabeni, kodwa ukukhula kwesivuno seyunithi ngayinye kuhamba kancane, okudinga ukunakwa okukhulu.Ukuqinisa ukuthuthukiswa kwemvelo, ukwakha uhlelo lokuphatha oluphusile, kanye nokukhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwesayensi yesimanje nobuchwepheshe kwezolimo kunquma ukuvikeleka kokudla emhlabeni esizayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-08-2024