I-Aedes aegypti iyi-vector eyinhloko yama-arboviruses amaningana (afana nodenga, i-chikungunya, ne-Zika) abangela ukuqubuka kwezifo zabantu njalo ezindaweni ezishisayo nezishisayo. Ukulawulwa kwalokhu kuqubuka kuncike ekulawuleni ama-vector, ngokuvamile ngendlela yezifutho zokubulala izinambuzane eziqondise omiyane besifazane abadala. Kodwa-ke, ukumbozwa kwendawo kanye nezikhathi zokufafaza okudingekayo ukuze kusebenze kahle akucacile. Kulolu cwaningo, sichaza umthelela wokufafaza kwasendlini ngezibulala-zinambuzane ze-pyrethroid ze-ultra-low volume (ULV) ezixukwini zomiyane basekhaya i-Aedes aegypti.
Imiphumela yethu ibonisa ukuthi ukuncipha kwekhaya e-Aedes aegypti ngokuyinhloko kungenxa yokufafaza okwenzeka endlini efanayo, kungekho mphumela owengeziwe wokufafaza emizini engomakhelwane. Ukusebenza kahle kwesifutho kufanele kulinganiswe ngokwesikhathi kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina, njengoba asitholanga umphumela oqongelelekayo wezifutho ezilandelanayo. Ngokusekelwe kumodeli yethu, silinganisela ukuthi ukusebenza kwesifutho kwehla ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemva kokufutha.
Ukwehla kokuchichima kwe-Aedes aegypti phakathi komuzi kwanqunywa ngokuyinhloko inani lezinsuku kusukela ngesikhathi sokugcina sokufuthwa kulowo muzi, okugqamisa ukubaluleka kokusabalala kwezindawo ezisengozini enkulu, ngokufafaza imvamisa kuncike kumandla okudluliselwa kwegciwane lendawo.
Kulolu cwaningo, sisebenzise idatha evela ezivivinyweni ezimbili ezinkulu zensimu yokufafaza kwe-ultra-low volume indoor pyrethroid edolobheni lase-Iquitos, esifundeni sase-Amazon sasePeru ukuze silinganisele umthelela wokufafaza kwevolumu ephansi kakhulu kumiyane ngamunye we-aedes aegypti ngaphakathi komuzi, udlulela ngale kwemingcele yomuzi owodwa. Ucwaningo lwangaphambilini lulinganise umphumela wokwelashwa kwevolumu ephansi kakhulu ngokusekelwe ekutheni ingabe imindeni ibingaphakathi noma ngaphandle kwendawo yokungenelela enkulu. Kulolu cwaningo, sihlose ukuhlukanisa imiphumela yokwelashwa ezingeni elingcono lemizi ngayinye ukuze siqonde umnikelo ohlobene wokwelashwa kwasekhaya uma kuqhathaniswa nokwelashwa kwemindeni engomakhelwane. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, salinganisela umphumela onqwabelene wokufafaza okuphindayo uma kuqhathaniswa nokufafazwa kwakamuva kakhulu kwe-Aedes aegypti yokunciphisa ezindlini zezinkukhu ukuze siqonde ubuningi bokufutha okudingekayo kanye nokuhlola ukwehla kokusebenza kwesifutho ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lokhu kuhlaziya kungase kusize ekuthuthukisweni kwamasu okulawula ama-vector futhi kunikeze ulwazi lokuhlukaniswa kwamamodeli ukuze kubikezelwe ukusebenza kwawo.
Umphumela wenzalo uchazwa njengengqikithi yenani labantu abadala i-Aedes aegypti eqoqwe kumuzi ngamunye i kanye nesikhathi t , ehlelwa ngohlaka lwamaleveli amaningi e-Bayesia kusetshenziswa ukusabalalisa okuyi-binomial okungekuhle ukuze kukhawulwe ukuhlakazeka ngokweqile, ikakhulukazi njengoba kuqoqwe inani elikhulu labantu abadala abangenalutho be-Aedes aegypti . Uma kubhekwa umehluko wendawo kanye nemiklamo yokuhlola phakathi kwalezi zifundo ezimbili, wonke amamodeli ekhandidethi afakwe kudathasethi ye-S-2013 kanye ne-L-2014, ngokulandelana. Amamodeli akhethiwe athuthukiswa ngokuya ngefomu elijwayelekile:
u-a umele noma iyiphi isethi yokuhlukahluka kwekhandidethi ekala umthelela wokufafaza ekhaya ngesikhathi t, njengoba kuchazwe ngezansi.
b imele noma iyiphi isethi yezinto eziguquguqukayo ezikala umthelela wokufafaza komakhelwane ekhaya ngesikhathi t, njengoba kuchazwe ngezansi .
Sihlole i-b-statistic elula ngokubala ingxenye yemizi engaphakathi kweringi ebangeni elithile ukusuka ku-i-house i efuthwe esontweni elingaphambi kuka-t .
lapho u-h eyinani lemizi e-ringini r, futhi r iyibanga phakathi kweringi nasekhaya i. Ibanga eliphakathi kwamaringi linikezwa ngokusekelwe ezintweni ezilandelayo:
Ukulingana kwemodeli ehlobene kwemisebenzi yokuchayeka yesifutho esinesisindo sesikhathi sasendlini. Ulayini obomvu owugqinsi umelela imodeli elingana kahle kakhulu, enomugqa owugqinsi omelela imodeli elingana kahle neminye imigqa ewugqinsi emelela amamodeli i-WAIC yawo engahluke kakhulu kune-WAIC yemodeli elingana kahle kakhulu. Umsebenzi wokubola we-BA usetshenziswa enanini lezinsuku kusukela ekufuthweni kokugcina okukumamodeli amahlanu aphezulu afaneleka ngokususelwe esilinganisweni sezinga se-WAIC kuzo zonke izivivinyo ezimbili.
Imodeli ilinganisela ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kwesifutho kwehle ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemuva kokufafaza, kuyilapho abantu be-Aedes aegypti bacishe balulama cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-50-60 ngemuva kokufafaza.
Kulolu cwaningo, sichaza umthelela wokufafaza kwe-pyrethrin yevolumu ephansi kakhulu yangaphakathi endlini yabantu be-Aedes aegypti ngokuhlobene nemicimbi yokufafaza eyenzeka okwesikhashana nasendaweni eduze kwekhaya. Ukuqonda kangcono ubude besikhathi kanye nezinga lendawo lemithelela yokufafaza kubantu base-Aedes aegypti kuzosiza ekuhlonzeni okuhlosiwe okufanelekile kokumbozwa kwendawo kanye nemvamisa yokufafaza okudingekayo phakathi nokungenelela kokulawula ama-vector, futhi kuzonikeza isisekelo sokuqhathanisa amasu ahlukene okulawula ama-vector angaba khona. ulwazi. Imiphumela yethu ibonisa ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwenani labantu be-Aedes aegypti kwangaphakathi kwendlu kungenxa yokufafaza endlini eyodwa, kungekho mphumela owengeziwe wokufafazwa yimizi ezindaweni ezingomakhelwane. Umthelela wokufafaza kubantu abangaphakathi kwe-Aedes aegypti uncike ikakhulukazi esikhathini kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina futhi wehla kancane kancane ezinsukwini ezingama-60. Akukho okunye ukuncipha kwezibalo ze-Aedes aegypti okubonwe ngenxa yomphumela onqwabelene wemicimbi eminingi yokufafaza yasendlini. Sekukonke, inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti lehlile. Isibalo somiyane i-Aedes aegypti ekhaya sincike ikakhulukazi esikhathini esidlulile kusukela ekufuthweni kokugcina kulowo muzi.
Umkhawulo obalulekile wocwaningo lwethu ukuthi asizange silawule iminyaka yabantu abadala be-Aedes aegypti omiyane abaqoqiwe. Ukuhlaziywa kwangaphambilini kwalokhu kuhlolwa [14] kubonise ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa kweminyaka yobudala kwabesifazane abadala kuvame ukuba bancane (ingxenye ekhulisiwe yabesifazane abangenalutho) endaweni yokufafaza ye-L-2014 uma kuqhathaniswa nendawo yebhafa. Ngakho-ke, nakuba singazange sithole indima eyengeziwe echazayo yokufafaza izenzakalo ezindlini ezizungezile ngobuningi be-Aedes aegypti endlini ethile, asikwazi ukuqiniseka ukuthi ayikho imiphumela yesifunda ku-Aedes aegypti yabantu dynamics ezindaweni lapho izenzakalo zokufafaza zenzeka njalo.
Eminye imikhawulo yocwaningo lwethu ihlanganisa ukungakwazi ukulandisa ngokufafazwa okuphuthumayo koMnyango Wezempilo, okwenzeka cishe izinyanga ezi-2 ngaphambi kokufuthwa kokuhlolwa kwe-L-2014, ngenxa yokuntuleka kolwazi oluningiliziwe ngendawo yayo nesikhathi. Ukuhlaziya kwangaphambilini kubonise ukuthi lezi zifutho zibe nomthelela ofanayo kuyo yonke indawo yocwaningo, zakha izinga lesisekelo elivamile le-Aedes aegypti density; eqinisweni, ngesikhathi kuqala ukufuthwa kokuhlola, izakhamuzi zase-Aedes aegypti zase ziqale ukusimama . Ngaphezu kwalokho, umehluko emiphumeleni phakathi kwezikhathi ezimbili zokuhlola ungase ube ngenxa yokuhluka ekuklanyweni kocwaningo kanye nokuthinteka okuhlukile kwe-Aedes aegypti ku-cypermethrin, ne-S-2013 ezwela kakhulu kune-L-2014.
Okokugcina, imiphumela yethu ibonisa ukuthi imiphumela yokufafaza endlini yayilinganiselwe ekhaya lapho ukufuthwa kwenzeka khona, nokuthi ukufutha emizini engomakhelwane akuzange kwehlise nakakhulu inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti. Omiyane abadala be-Aedes aegypti bangahlala beseduze noma ngaphakathi ezindlini, babuthana phakathi kwamamitha ayi-10 futhi bahambe ibanga eliyisilinganiso esingu-106 m. Ngakho-ke, ukufafaza indawo ezungeze indlu kungase kungabi nomthelela omkhulu kubantu base-Aedes aegypti kuleyo ndlu. Lokhu kusekela imiphumela yangaphambilini yokuthi ukufafaza ngaphandle noma endlini akunamphumela . Kodwa-ke, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, kungase kube namathonya esifunda ku-Aedes aegypti yabantu dynamics, futhi imodeli yethu ayizange yakhelwe ukuthola imiphumela enjalo.
Ihlanganiswe ndawonye, imiphumela yethu iqokomisa ukubaluleka kokufinyelela yonke imizi esengozini enkulu yokutheleleka ngesikhathi sokuqubuka kwesifo, njengoba amakhaya angakaze afuthwe muva nje awakwazi ukuthembela ekungeneleleni okuseduze noma ngisho nokungenelela okuningi okudlule ukuze kuncishiswe inani lomiyane olukhona manje. Ngenxa yokuthi ezinye izindlu zazingafinyeleleki, imizamo yokuqala yokufafaza njalo yayibangela ukumbozwa kancane. Ukuvakasha okuphindaphindiwe kwemindeni ephuthelwe kungakhuphula izinga lokutholakala, kodwa izinzuzo ziyancipha ngomjikelezo ngamunye wemizamo futhi izindleko zomuzi ngamunye ziyakhuphuka. Ngakho-ke izinhlelo zokulawula ama-Vector kufanele zithuthukiswe ngokuqondisa izindawo lapho ingozi yokusuleleka kodenga iphezulu. Ukudluliswa kodenga kuyahlukahluka emkhathini nangesikhathi, futhi ukuhlolwa kwendawo kwezindawo ezisengozini enkulu, okuhlanganisa nenani labantu, izimo zemvelo nezenhlalo, kufanele kuqondise imizamo yokulawula ama- vector okuhlosiwe . Amanye amasu ahlosiwe, njengokuhlanganisa ukufutha kwensalela yasendlini nokulandela umkhondo wokuxhumana naye, abesebenza esikhathini esidlule futhi angase aphumelele kwezinye izilungiselelo . Amamodeli ezibalo angasiza futhi ekukhetheni amasu alungile okulawula i-vector ukuze kuncishiswe ukudluliswa kwesilungiselelo ngasinye sendawo ngaphandle kwesidingo sezilingo zenkambu ezibizayo neziyinkimbinkimbi . Imiphumela yethu ihlinzeka ngepharamitha enemininingwane yemiphumela yendawo kanye neyesikhashana yokufafaza kwangaphakathi kwevolumu ephansi kakhulu, okungase kwazise imizamo yokumodela yesikhathi esizayo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-13-2025