I-Aedes aegypti iyimbangela eyinhloko yama-arbovirus amaningana (njenge-dengue, i-chikungunya, ne-Zika) abangela ukuqubuka kwezifo ezivame ukuvela kubantu ezindaweni ezishisayo nezishisayo. Ukuphathwa kwalokhu kuqubuka kuncike ekulawulweni kwezifo ezithwala izifo, ngokuvamile ngesimo sokufutha izibulala-zinambuzane eziqondiswe komiyane besifazane abadala. Kodwa-ke, ukumbozwa kwendawo kanye nokuvama kokufutha okudingekayo ukuze kusebenze kahle akucaci. Kulolu cwaningo, sichaza umthelela wokufutha ngaphakathi endlini ngezibulala-zinambuzane ze-pyrethroid ezisebenzisa i-ultra-low volume (ULV) emindenini yomiyane be-Aedes aegypti.
Imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi ukwehla kwenani le-Aedes aegypti ngaphakathi kwekhaya kubangelwa kakhulu ukufutha okwenzeka ngaphakathi kwekhaya elifanayo, ngaphandle komphumela owengeziwe wokufutha emindenini engomakhelwane. Ukusebenza kahle kokufutha kufanele kulinganiswe ngokwesikhathi kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina, njengoba sithole umphumela oqongelelekayo wokufutha okulandelanayo. Ngokusekelwe kumodeli yethu, silinganisela ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kokufutha kwehla ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemuva kokufutha.
Ukwehla kwenani le-Aedes aegypti emndenini kwakunqunywa kakhulu yinani lezinsuku kusukela ekufefweni kokugcina kulowo mndeni, okugqamisa ukubaluleka kokumbozwa kokufuthwa ezindaweni ezinobungozi obukhulu, lapho ukufuthwa kuvame khona kuncike ekudlulisweni kwegciwane endaweni.
Kulolu cwaningo, sisebenzise idatha evela ezivivinyweni ezimbili ezinkulu zasensimini zokufutha okuphindaphindwayo kwe-pyrethroid yangaphakathi enomthamo ophansi kakhulu edolobheni lase-Iquitos, esifundeni sase-Peruvian Amazon ukuze silinganisele umthelela wokufutha okuphansi kakhulu kobuningi bomiyane be-aedes aegypti ngamunye ngaphakathi komndeni, okudlulela ngale kwemingcele yomndeni owodwa. Ucwaningo lwangaphambilini lulinganisele umthelela wokwelashwa okuphansi kakhulu ngokusekelwe ekutheni imindeni yayingaphakathi noma ngaphandle kwendawo enkulu yokungenelela. Kulolu cwaningo, sihlose ukuhlukanisa imiphumela yokwelapha ezingeni elihle kakhulu lemindeni ngayinye ukuze siqonde umnikelo ohlobene wokwelashwa kwangaphakathi komndeni uma kuqhathaniswa nokwelashwa emindenini engomakhelwane. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, silinganisele umthelela oqongelelekayo wokufutha okuphindaphindwayo uma kuqhathaniswa nokufutha kwakamuva ku-Aedes aegypti ukunciphisa ezindlini zezinkukhu ukuze siqonde imvamisa yokufutha edingekayo kanye nokuhlola ukwehla kokusebenza kokufutha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lokhu kuhlaziywa kungasiza ekuthuthukisweni kwamasu okulawula i-vector futhi kuhlinzeke ngolwazi lokulinganisa amamodeli ukuze kubikezelwe ukusebenza kwawo.
Umphumela wesithakazelo uchazwa njengenani eliphelele lama-Aedes aegypti abantu abadala aqoqwe ngomndeni ngamunye i kanye nesikhathi t, esiklanywe ngohlaka lwe-Bayesian olunezinga eliningi kusetshenziswa ukusatshalaliswa kwe-binomial okunegative ukuze kubhekwe ukuhlakazeka ngokweqile, ikakhulukazi njengoba inani elikhulu labantu abadala be-Aedes aegypti abangenalutho liqoqwe . Ngenxa yomehluko wendawo kanye nemiklamo yokuhlola phakathi kwezifundo ezimbili, wonke amamodeli aqokiwe afakwe kusethi yedatha ye-S-2013 kanye ne-L-2014, ngokulandelana. Amamodeli aqokiwe athuthukiswa ngokwefomu elijwayelekile:
u-a umele noma yiliphi iqoqo lezinto eziguquguqukayo ezilinganisa umthelela wokufutha endlini ngesikhathi u-t, njengoba kuchaziwe ngezansi.
u-b umele noma yiluphi uhlobo lwesethi yeziguquguquko ezingaba khona ezilinganisa umthelela wokufutha komakhelwane abaseduze komndeni i ngesikhathi u-t, njengoba kuchaziwe ngezansi.
Sivivinye i-b-statistic elula ngokubala inani lemindeni engaphakathi kwendandatho ebangeni elithile ukusuka emndenini i eyafuthwa ngesonto elingaphambi kuka-t.
lapho u-h kuyinani lemindeni esendandatho u-r, kanti u-r yibanga eliphakathi kwendandatho nomndeni u-i. Ibanga eliphakathi kwezindandatho linikezwa ngokusekelwe kulezi zici ezilandelayo:
Imodeli ehlobene ifanele imisebenzi yokuchayeka ekufakweni kwesifutho endlini elinganiselwe isikhathi. Umugqa obomvu ojiyile umele imodeli efanela kahle kakhulu, kanti umugqa ojiyile umele imodeli efanela kahle kakhulu kanti eminye imigqa ejiyile imele amamodeli ane-WAIC engahlukile kakhulu ku-WAIC yemodeli efanela kahle kakhulu. Umsebenzi wokubola kwe-BA usetshenziswa enanini lezinsuku kusukela ekufakweni kokugcina okuphakathi kwamamodeli amahlanu afanela kahle kakhulu ngokusekelwe esilinganisweni se-WAIC esimaphakathi kuzo zonke izivivinyo ezimbili.
Imodeli ilinganisele ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kokufutha kwehle ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemuva kokufutha, kuyilapho inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti cishe laphinde lalulama ngokuphelele cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-50-60 ngemva kokufutha.
Kulesi sifundo, sichaza umthelela wokufutha kwe-pyrethrin yangaphakathi enevolumu ephansi kakhulu emiphakathini ye-Aedes aegypti yangaphakathi maqondana nezehlakalo zokufutha ezenzeka ngesikhathi nasendaweni eduze kwekhaya. Ukuqonda kangcono isikhathi kanye nobubanzi bendawo yemiphumela yokufutha emiphakathini ye-Aedes aegypti kuzosiza ekuboneni imigomo efanele yokumbozwa kwendawo kanye nokuvama kokufutha okudingekayo ngesikhathi sokungenelela kokulawula i-vector, futhi kuzohlinzeka ngesisekelo sokuqhathanisa ulwazi oluhlukile lwamasu okulawula i-vector. Imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi ukwehla kwenani labantu be-Aedes aegypti yangaphakathi kwekhaya kungenxa yokufutha ngaphakathi kwekhaya elilodwa, ngaphandle komphumela owengeziwe wokufutha yimindeni ezindaweni ezingomakhelwane. Umthelela wokufutha emiphakathini ye-Aedes aegypti yangaphakathi uncike kakhulu esikhathini kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina futhi kancane kancane wehla ezinsukwini ezingama-60. Akukho ukwehla okwengeziwe kwenani labantu be-Aedes aegypti okubonwe ngenxa yomphumela ohlangene wezehlakalo eziningi zokufutha zangaphakathi kwekhaya. Sekukonke, inani labantu be-Aedes aegypti lehlile. Inani lomiyane be-Aedes aegypti emndenini lincike kakhulu esikhathini esidlulile kusukela ekufuthweni kokugcina kulowo mndeni.
Umkhawulo obalulekile wocwaningo lwethu ukuthi asizange silawule iminyaka yomiyane abadala be-Aedes aegypti abaqoqiwe. Ukuhlaziywa kwangaphambilini kwalezi zivivinyo [14] kubonise ukuthi ukusatshalaliswa kweminyaka kwabesifazane abadala kwakuvame ukuba kuncane (inani elandayo labesifazane abangenalutho) endaweni yokufafaza ye-L-2014 uma kuqhathaniswa nendawo ye-buffer. Ngakho-ke, nakuba singatholanga indima eyengeziwe yokuchaza imicimbi yokufafaza emakhaya azungezile ngobuningi be-Aedes aegypti emndenini othile, asinakuqiniseka ukuthi ayikho imiphumela yesifunda ku-dynamics yabantu be-Aedes aegypti ezindaweni lapho imicimbi yokufafaza ivame ukwenzeka khona.
Eminye imikhawulo yocwaningo lwethu ihlanganisa ukungakwazi ukuchaza ukufuthwa okuphuthumayo nguMnyango Wezempilo, okwenzeke cishe ezinyangeni ezimbili ngaphambi kokufuthwa kokuhlolwa kwe-L-2014, ngenxa yokuntuleka kolwazi oluningiliziwe mayelana nendawo nesikhathi sayo. Ukuhlaziywa kwangaphambilini kubonise ukuthi la ma-spray abe nomphumela ofanayo kuyo yonke indawo yocwaningo, akha izinga elijwayelekile lesisekelo sobuningi be-Aedes aegypti; empeleni, ngesikhathi kuqala ukufuthwa kokuhlolwa, inani labantu be-Aedes aegypti lase liqalile ukululama. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umehluko emiphumeleni phakathi kwezinkathi ezimbili zokuhlola ungase ube ngenxa yokungafani komklamo wocwaningo kanye nokuthambekela okuhlukile kwe-Aedes aegypti ku-cypermethrin, kanti i-S-2013 ibucayi kakhulu kune-L-2014.
Okokugcina, imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi imiphumela yokufutha ngaphakathi yayikhawulelwe emndenini lapho ukufutha kwenzeke khona, nokuthi ukufutha emakhaya angomakhelwane akuzange kunciphise inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti. Omiyane abadala base-Aedes aegypti bangahlala eduze noma ngaphakathi ezindlini, behlangana ngaphakathi kwamamitha ayi-10 futhi bahambe ibanga elimaphakathi lamamitha ayi-106. Ngakho-ke, ukufutha indawo ezungeze indlu kungase kungabi nomthelela omkhulu kubantu base-Aedes aegypti kuleyo ndlu. Lokhu kusekela okutholakele kwangaphambilini kokuthi ukufutha ngaphandle noma eduze kwendlu akunamphumela. Kodwa-ke, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, kungase kube nethonya lesifunda ku-dynamics yabantu base-Aedes aegypti, futhi imodeli yethu yayingaklanyelwe ukuthola imiphumela enjalo.
Uma sibheka ndawonye, imiphumela yethu igcizelela ukubaluleka kokufinyelela yonke imizi esengozini enkulu yokutheleleka ngesikhathi sokuqubuka kobhubhane, njengoba imindeni engakaze ifuthwe muva nje ayikwazi ukuthembela ekungeneleleni okuseduze noma ngisho nokungenelela okuningi kwangaphambilini ukunciphisa inani lomiyane abakhona njengamanje. Ngenxa yokuthi ezinye izindlu zazingenakufinyeleleka, imizamo yokuqala yokufutha yayihlala iholela ekumbozweni okungaphelele. Ukuvakashelwa okuphindaphindiwe kwemindeni ephuthelwe kungandisa ukumbozwa, kodwa imbuyiselo iyancipha ngomjikelezo ngamunye wemizamo futhi izindleko ngomndeni ziyanda. Ngakho-ke izinhlelo zokulawula ama-vector zidinga ukuthuthukiswa ngokubhekisisa izindawo lapho ingozi yokudluliswa kwe-dengue iphezulu khona. Ukudluliswa kwe-dengue kuhlukile esikhaleni nasesikhathini, futhi ukuhlolwa kwendawo kwezindawo ezinobungozi obukhulu, okuhlanganisa izimo zabantu, ezemvelo kanye nezenhlalo, kufanele kuqondise imizamo yokulawula ama-vector eqondisiwe. Amanye amasu aqondisiwe, njengokuhlanganisa ukufutha okusele endlini nokulandelela othintana nabo, abe nempumelelo esikhathini esidlule futhi angaphumelela kwezinye izindawo. Amamodeli ezibalo angasiza futhi ekukhetheni amasu okulawula ama-vector afanele ukunciphisa ukudluliswa endaweni ngayinye yendawo ngaphandle kwesidingo sokuhlolwa kwensimu okubizayo nokuyinkimbinkimbi. Imiphumela yethu inikeza ukulinganiswa okuningiliziwe kwemiphumela yendawo neyesikhathi yokufutha ngaphakathi endlini ngobuningi obuphansi kakhulu, okungase kunikeze ulwazi ngemizamo yokumodela yesikhathi esizayo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Jan-13-2025