Le phrojekthi ihlaziye idatha evela ekuhloleni okukhulu okubili okubandakanya imizuliswano eyisithupha yokufuthwa kwe-pyrethroid yangaphakathi esikhathini esiyiminyaka emibili edolobheni lasePeruvia lase-Amazon lase-Iquitos. Sakhe imodeli yendawo yamaleveli amaningi ukuze sihlonze izimbangela zokuncipha kwenani labantu base-Aedes aegypti ezibangelwe (i) ukusetshenziswa kwakamuva komkhaya kwezibulala-zinambuzane eziphakeme kakhulu (i-ULV) kanye (ii) nokusetshenziswa kwe-ULV emizini engomakhelwane noma eseduze. Siqhathanise ukulingana kwemodeli nohlu lwezinhlelo zokukala isisindo esisebenzayo sezifutho ezisuselwe emisebenzini ehlukene yokubola kwesikhashana nendawo ukuze kuthwebule imiphumela esalibele yezibulala-zinambuzane ze-ULV.
Imiphumela yethu ibonisa ukuthi ukuncipha kwenala ye-A. aegypti phakathi komuzi ngokuyinhloko kwakungenxa yokufafaza ngaphakathi komuzi ofanayo, kuyilapho ukufutha emizini engomakhelwane kwakungekho mphumela owengeziwe. Ukusebenza kahle kwemisebenzi yokufafaza kufanele kuhlolwe ngokusekelwe esikhathini kusukela ngesikhathi sokugcina sokufafaza, njengoba asizange sithole umphumela okhulayo wokufafaza okulandelanayo. Ngokusekelwe kumodeli wethu, silinganisele ukuthi ukusebenza kwesifutho kwehle ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemva kokufutha.
Ukwehliswa komiyane Yasekhaya i-Aedes aegypti kwakuncike ngokuyinhloko enanini lezinsuku kusukela ekwelashweni kokugcina emzini othile, okugqamisa ukubaluleka kokumbozwa kwesifutho ezindaweni ezisengozini enkulu, ngokuvama kwesifutho kuncike kumandla okudlulisela asendaweni.
I-Aedes aegypti iwumthombo oyinhloko wama-arboviruses amaningana angabangela ubhubhane olukhulu, kuhlanganise negciwane lodenga (DENV), igciwane le-chikungunya, kanye negciwane leZika. Lolu hlobo lomiyane ludla ngokuyinhloko abantu futhi luvame ukudla abantu. Ijwayelane kahle nezindawo zasemadolobheni [1,2,3,4] futhi ihlanganise izindawo eziningi ezindaweni ezishisayo nasezindaweni ezishisayo [5]. Eziningi zalezi zifunda, ukuqubuka kodenga kuphindeka ngezikhathi ezithile, okuholela ezimweni ezilinganiselwa ezigidini ezingama-390 ngonyaka [6, 7]. Uma kungekho ukwelashwa noma umuthi wokugoma osebenzayo notholakala kabanzi, ukuvimbela nokulawula ukusakazeka kodenga kuncike ekwehliseni inani lomiyane ngezinyathelo ezihlukahlukene zokulawula ama-vector, ngokuvamile ngokufutha izibulala-zinambuzane eziqondise omiyane abadala [8].
Kulolu cwaningo, sisebenzise idatha evela ezivivinyweni ezimbili ezinkulu, eziyimpinda zensimu yokufafaza nge-ultra-low volume indoor pyrethroid edolobheni lase-Iquitos, e-Peruvian Amazon [14], ukuze silinganisele imiphumela yokusalela yendawo kanye neyesikhashana yokufafaza kwevolumu ephansi kakhulu endlini ye-Aedes aegypti ngobuningi ngaphandle komuntu ngamunye. Ucwaningo lwangaphambilini luhlole umthelela wokwelashwa kwevolumu ephansi kakhulu kuye ngokuthi amakhaya angaphakathi noma ngaphandle kwendawo yokungenelela enkulu. Kulolu cwaningo, sifuna ukubolisa imiphumela yokwelashwa ezingeni elingcono kakhulu, ezingeni ngalinye lomndeni, ukuze siqonde umnikelo ohlobene wokwelashwa kwasekhaya uma kuqhathaniswa nokwelashwa kwemindeni engomakhelwane. Okwesikhashana, silinganise umphumela onqwabelene wokufafaza okuphindayo uma kuqhathaniswa nokufutha kwakamuva kakhulu ekunciphiseni ukuchichima kwe-Aedes aegypti ukuze siqonde imvamisa yokufafaza okudingekayo kanye nokuhlola ukwehla kokusebenza kwesifutho ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lokhu kuhlaziya kungasiza ekwakhiweni kwamasu okulawula ama-vector futhi kunikeze ulwazi lokuhlukaniswa kwamamodeli ukuze kubikezelwe ukusebenza kwawo kahle [22, 23, 24].
Isethulo esibonakalayo sohlelo lwebanga leringi olusetshenziselwa ukubala ingxenye yemizi engaphakathi kwendandatho ebangeni elithile ukusuka ekhaya elashwe ngezibulala-zinambuzane ngeviki elandulela t (yonke imindeni iphakathi kuka-1000 m wendawo yebhafa). Kulesi sibonelo sakwa-L-2014, imindeni engangihlala kuyo ngangisendaweni eselashwayo futhi inhlolovo yabantu abadala yenziwa ngemva komzuliswano wesibili wokufafaza. Amaringi amabanga asuselwa ebangeni omiyane be-Aedes aegypti abaziwa ngokundiza. Amaringi ebanga B asekelwe ekusabalaliseni okufanayo njalo ngamamitha ayi-100.
Sihlole isilinganiso esilula b ngokubala ingxenye yemizi engaphakathi kweringi ebangeni elithile ukusuka ku-ikhaya elashwe ngezibulala-zinambuzane evikini elandulelayo (Ifayela Lokwengeza 1: Ithebula 4).
lapho u-h eyinani lemizi e-ringini r, futhi r iyibanga phakathi kweringi nasekhaya i. Amabanga phakathi kwamaringi anqunywa kucatshangelwa izici ezilandelayo:
Ukulingana kwemodeli ehlobene komsebenzi womphumela wesifutho esinesisindo esilinganiselwe endlini. Imigqa ebomvu ewugqinsi imelela amamodeli afaneleka kakhulu, lapho ulayini owugqinsi umelela amamodeli afaneleka kakhulu kanti eminye imigqa ewugqinsi imelela amamodeli i-WAIC yawo engahluke kakhulu kune-WAIC yemodeli elingana kahle kakhulu. Umsebenzi wokubola we-B usetshenziswe ezinsukwini kusukela isifutho sokugcina ebezingamamodeli amahlanu aphezulu afaneleka kakhulu, zibalwa nge-WAIC emaphakathi kukho kokubili ukuhlolwa.
Ukwehliswa okulinganiselwe kwezinombolo ze-Aedes aegypti umuzi ngamunye kuhlobene nenani lezinsuku kusukela ekufuthweni kokugcina. I-equation enikeziwe izwakalisa ukuncishiswa njengesilinganiso, lapho isilinganiso sesilinganiso (RR) siyisilinganiso sesimo sokufafaza nesisekelo sokungafafazi.
Imodeli yalinganisela ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kwesifutho kwehle ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemva kokufafaza, kuyilapho abantu base-Aedes aegypti base beluleme cishe ngokuphelele ezinsukwini ezingama-50-60 ngemva kokufutha.
Kulolu cwaningo, sichaza imiphumela yokufafaza kwe-pyrethroid yevolumu ephansi yevolumu yangaphakathi endlini ngobuningi be-Aedes aegypti njengomsebenzi wesikhathi kanye nezinga lendawo lokufafaza eduze kwekhaya. Ukuqonda kangcono ubude besikhathi kanye nezinga lendawo lemiphumela yokufafaza kubantu base-Aedes aegypti kuzosiza ukukhomba okuhlosiwe okufanelekile kokumbozwa kwendawo kanye nemvamisa yokufafaza edingekayo ngesikhathi sokungenelela kokulawula ama-vector futhi yazise ukumodela ngokuqhathanisa amasu ahlukene okulawula ama-vector. Imiphumela yethu ibonisa ukuthi ukuncishiswa kwenani labantu be-Aedes aegypti endlini eyodwa kwaqhutshwa ukufuthwa endlini eyodwa, kanti ukufuthwa kwemizi ezindaweni ezingomakhelwane akuzange kube nomthelela owengeziwe. Imiphumela yokufafaza ngobuningi be-Aedes aegypti yasendlini yayincike ngokuyinhloko esikhathini kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina futhi yehla kancane kancane ezinsukwini ezingama-60. Akukho okunye ukuncishiswa kwezibalo ze-Aedes aegypti okubonwe njengomphumela wokunqwabelana kokufuthwa okuningi kwasekhaya. Ngamafuphi, inani le-Aedes aegypti lehlile. Isibalo somiyane i-Aedes aegypti ekhaya sincike ikakhulukazi esikhathini esidlulile kusukela ekufuthweni kokugcina kulowo muzi.
Umkhawulo obalulekile wocwaningo lwethu ukuthi asizange silawule iminyaka yabantu abadala be-Aedes aegypti omiyane abaqoqiwe. Ukuhlaziya kwangaphambilini kwalokhu kuhlolwa [14] kutholwe ithrendi ebheke ekusabalaleni kweminyaka encane kwabesifazane abadala (ingxenye engeziwe yabesifazane abangenalutho) ezindaweni ezilashwe i-L-2014 uma kuqhathaniswa nendawo yebhafa. Ngakho-ke, nakuba singazange sithole umphumela ochazayo owengeziwe wokufafaza emizini eseduze ngobuningi be-A. aegypti emzini othile, asikwazi ukuqiniseka ukuthi awukho umthelela wesifunda ku-A. aegypti yabantu dynamics ezindaweni lapho ukufuthwa kwenzeka njalo.
Eminye imikhawulo yocwaningo lwethu ihlanganisa ukungakwazi ukuphendula ngokufafaza okuphuthumayo okwenziwa uMnyango Wezempilo cishe izinyanga ezi-2 ngaphambi kokufuthwa kokuhlola kwe-L-2014 ngenxa yokuntuleka kolwazi oluningiliziwe ngendawo yayo nesikhathi. Ukuhlaziya kwangaphambilini kubonise ukuthi lezi zifutho zibe nemiphumela efanayo kuyo yonke indawo yocwaningo, zakha isisekelo esivamile se-Aedes aegypti densities; ngempela, imiphakathi ye-Aedes aegypti yaqala ukululama lapho ukufuthwa kokuhlola kwenziwa [14]. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umehluko emiphumeleni phakathi kwezikhathi ezimbili zokuhlola ungase ube ngenxa yomehluko ekwakhiweni kocwaningo kanye nokuthambekela okuhlukile kwe-Aedes aegypti ku-cypermethrin, kanti i-S-2013 izwela kakhulu kune-L-2014 [14]. Sibika imiphumela engaguquki kakhulu evela ezifundweni ezimbili futhi sifaka imodeli efakwe kuhlolo lwe-L-2014 njengemodeli yethu yokugcina. Njengoba kunikezwe ukuthi idizayini yokuhlola ye-L-2014 ifaneleka kakhulu ekuhloleni umthelela wokufafaza kwakamuva omiyane be-Aedes aegypti, kanye nokuthi abantu bendawo be-Aedes aegypti base bethuthuke ukumelana nama-pyrethroids ngasekupheleni kuka-2014 [41], sibheke le modeli njengenketho elondoloza kakhulu futhi efaneleka kakhudlwana ukufeza izinjongo zalolu cwaningo.
Umthambeka oyisicaba uma kuqhathaniswa wejika lokubola kwesifutho obonwe kulolu cwaningo kungenzeka kungenxa yenhlanganisela yezinga lokuwohloka kwe-cypermethrin namandla omiyane. I-insecticide ye-cypermethrin esetshenziswe kulolu cwaningo i-pyrethroid eyonakalisa ngokuyinhloko nge-photolysis ne-hydrolysis (DT50 = 2.6-3.6 izinsuku) [44]. Nakuba ama-pyrethroids ngokuvamile abhekwa njengokunciphisa ngokushesha ngemva kokufaka isicelo nokuthi izinsalela zincane, izinga lokuwohloka kwe-pyrethroids lihamba kancane kakhulu ngaphakathi endlini kunangaphandle, futhi izifundo eziningana zibonise ukuthi i-cypermethrin ingaqhubeka emoyeni wangaphakathi nothuli izinyanga ngemva kokufafaza [45,46,47]. Izindlu e-Iquitos zivame ukwakhiwa emihubheni emnyama, emincane enamafasitela ambalwa, okungase kuchaze izinga elincishisiwe lokuwohloka ngenxa ye-photolysis [14]. Ukwengeza, i-cypermethrin inobuthi obunamandla omiyane be-Aedes aegypti abathintekayo ngemithamo ephansi (LD50 ≤ 0.001 ppm) [48]. Ngenxa yemvelo ye-hydrophobic ye-cypermethrin esele, akunakwenzeka ukuthi kuthinte izibungu zomiyane basemanzini, kuchaza ukutholakala kwabantu abadala ezindaweni ezihlala izibungu ezisebenzayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi njengoba kuchazwe ocwaningweni lwangempela, ngenani eliphakeme labesifazane abangewona ama-oviparous ezindaweni eziphathwayo kunezindawo ze-buffer [14]. Umjikelezo wempilo kamiyane i-Aedes aegypti ukusuka eqandeni kuye kwamdala ungathatha izinsuku eziyi-7 kuye kweziyi-10 kuye ngezinga lokushisa nezinhlobo zomiyane.[49] Ukubambezeleka kokubuyiselwa komiyane abadala kungase kuchazwe ngokuqhubekayo yiqiniso lokuthi i-cypermethrin esele ibulala noma ixosha abanye abantu abadala abasanda kuvela kanye nabanye abantu abadala abethulwe ezindaweni ezingakaze zelashwe, kanye nokunciphisa ukubekwa kweqanda ngenxa yokunciphisa izinombolo zabantu abadala [22, 50].
Amamodeli ahlanganisa wonke umlando wokufuthwa kwasekhaya okudlule abe nokunemba okumpofu kanye nezilinganiso zomphumela obuthaka kunamamodeli afaka kuphela idethi yakamuva kakhulu yokufuthwa. Lokhu akufanele kuthathwe njengobufakazi bokuthi imindeni ngayinye ayidingi ukwelashelwa kabusha. Ukutholwa kwezibalo ze-A. aegypti ezibonwe ocwaningweni lwethu, kanye nasezifundweni zangaphambilini [14], ngemva nje kokufafaza, kusikisela ukuthi amakhaya adinga ukwelashwa kabusha ngemvamisa enqunywa amandla okudlulisela asendaweni ukuze kumiswe kabusha ukucindezelwa kwe-A. aegypti. Imvamisa yokufutha kufanele iqondiswe ikakhulukazi ekwehliseni amathuba okutheleleka kwe-female Aedes aegypti, okuzonqunywa ubude obulindelekile benkathi yokufukamela yangaphandle (EIP) - isikhathi esisithathayo ukuze i-vector egobhoze egazini elinegciwane ukuthi itheleleke kumsingathi olandelayo. Ngokulandelayo, i-EIP izoncika kuhlobo lwegciwane, izinga lokushisa, nezinye izici. Isibonelo, endabeni yomkhuhlane wodenga, noma ngabe ukufafaza ngesibulala-zinambuzane kubulala bonke abantu abadala abathelelekayo, inani labantu lingase lihlale linezifo izinsuku eziyi-14 futhi lingathelela omiyane abasanda kuvela [54]. Ukuze kulawulwe ukusabalala komkhuhlane wodenga, izikhawu phakathi kokufafazwa kufanele zibe zifushane kunezikhawu phakathi kokwelashwa ngezibulala-zinambuzane ukuze kuqedwe omiyane abasanda kuvela abangase balume abantu abanaleli gciwane ngaphambi kokuba bathelele abanye omiyane. Izinsuku eziyisikhombisa zingasetshenziswa njengesiqondiso kanye neyunithi yokulinganisa elula yama-ejensi okulawula ama-vector. Ngakho-ke, ukufafaza nge-insecticide yamasonto onke okungenani amaviki angu-3 (ukumboza sonke isikhathi esithathelwanayo somninikhaya) bekuyokwanela ukuvimbela ukudluliselwa komkhuhlane wodenga, futhi imiphumela yethu iphakamisa ukuthi ukuphumelela kokufuthwa kwangaphambili bekungeke kuncishiswe kakhulu ngaleso sikhathi [13]. Ngempela, e-Iquitos, iziphathimandla zezempilo zanciphisa ngempumelelo ukusakazeka kodenga phakathi nokugqashuka ngokuqhuba imizuliswano emithathu yokufafaza ngezibulala-zinambuzane ezinomthamo ophansi kakhulu ezindaweni ezivaliwe phakathi nenkathi yamasonto ambalwa kuya ezinyangeni ezimbalwa.
Okokugcina, imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi umthelela wokufuthwa kwasendlini wawukhawulelwe ezindlini lapho kwenziwa khona, futhi ukufuthwa kwemizi engomakhelwane akuzange kuphinde kwehlise inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti. Omiyane abadala be-Aedes aegypti bangahlala beseduze noma ngaphakathi kwekhaya lapho bachanyuselwa khona, bahlanganise amamitha angu-10, futhi bahambe ibanga elingamamitha angu-106.[36] Ngakho, ukufafaza indawo ezungeze ikhaya kungase kungabi nomthelela omkhulu ezinambeni ze-Aedes aegypti kulelo khaya. Lokhu kusekela okutholwe ngaphambilini kokuthi ukufafaza ngaphandle noma eduze kwemizi akubanga namphumela [18, 55]. Nokho, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, kungase kube nemiphumela yesifunda ku-A. aegypti yabantu dynamics imodeli yethu engakwazi ukuyibona.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Feb-06-2025