Lo msebenzi uhlaziye idatha evela ezivivinyweni ezimbili ezinkulu ezihilela imijikelezo eyisithupha yokufutha nge-pyrethroid endlini esikhathini seminyaka emibili edolobheni lase-Iquitos lase-Peruvian Amazon. Sakhe imodeli yezinga elihlukahlukene ukuze sithole izimbangela zokwehla kwenani labantu base-Aedes aegypti okubangelwa (i) ukusetshenziswa kwamuva kwemithi yokubulala izinambuzane ephansi kakhulu (i-ULV) emakhaya kanye (ii) nokusetshenziswa kwe-ULV emakhaya angomakhelwane noma aseduze. Siqhathanise ukufaneleka kwemodeli nohlu lwezinhlelo zokulinganisa ukusebenza kahle kokufutha ezisekelwe emisebenzini ehlukene yokubola kwesikhathi nendawo ukuze sibambe imiphumela ebambekile yemithi yokubulala izinambuzane ye-ULV.
Imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi ukwehla kobuningi be-A. aegypti emndenini kwakubangelwa kakhulu ukufutha ngaphakathi komndeni ofanayo, kuyilapho ukufutha emindenini engomakhelwane kwakungenayo imiphumela eyengeziwe. Ukusebenza kahle kwemisebenzi yokufutha kufanele kuhlolwe ngokusekelwe esikhathini kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina, njengoba singatholanga umphumela ohlangene wokufutha okulandelanayo. Ngokusekelwe kumodeli yethu, silinganisele ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kokufutha kwehle ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemuva kokufutha.
Ukwehla kwenani lomiyane base-Aedes aegypti basemakhaya kwakuncike kakhulu enanini lezinsuku kusukela ukwelashwa kokugcina emndenini othile, okugqamisa ukubaluleka kokumbozwa kwesifutho ezindaweni ezinobungozi obukhulu, lapho imvamisa yesifutho incike ekushintsheni kwendawo.
I-Aedes aegypti iyisidalwa esiyinhloko sama-arbovirus amaningana angabangela ubhubhane olukhulu, okuhlanganisa igciwane le-dengue (DENV), igciwane le-chikungunya, kanye negciwane le-Zika. Lolu hlobo lomiyane ludla kakhulu abantu futhi luvame ukudla abantu. Lujwayelene kahle nezindawo zasemadolobheni [1,2,3,4] futhi luhlale ezindaweni eziningi ezindaweni ezishisayo nezingaphansi kwezindawo ezishisayo [5]. Eziningi zalezi zindawo, ukuqubuka kwe-dengue kuphinda kwenzeke ngezikhathi ezithile, okuholela ezimweni ezilinganiselwa ezigidini ezingu-390 ngonyaka [6, 7]. Uma kungekho ukwelashwa noma umuthi wokugomela osebenzayo futhi otholakala kabanzi, ukuvimbela nokulawula ukudluliswa kwe-dengue kuncike ekunciphiseni inani lomiyane ngezinyathelo ezahlukene zokulawula i-vector, ngokuvamile ukufafaza izibulala-zinambuzane ezihlasela omiyane abadala [8].
Kulesi sifundo, sisebenzise idatha evela ezivivinyweni ezimbili ezinkulu, eziphindaphindwayo zasensimini zokufutha nge-pyrethroid yangaphakathi enomthamo ophansi kakhulu edolobheni lase-Iquitos, e-Peruvian Amazon [14], ukuze silinganisele imiphumela ebambezelekile ngokwendawo nangesikhathi yokufutha nge-volume ephansi kakhulu enanini le-Aedes aegypti yasekhaya ngale komndeni ngamunye. Ucwaningo lwangaphambilini luhlole umphumela wokwelashwa nge-volume ephansi kakhulu kuye ngokuthi imindeni ingaphakathi noma ngaphandle kwendawo enkulu yokungenelela. Kulesi sifundo, sifuna ukuhlukanisa imiphumela yokwelapha ezingeni eliphansi, ezingeni lomndeni ngamunye, ukuze siqonde umnikelo ohlobene wokwelashwa kwangaphakathi komndeni uma kuqhathaniswa nokwelashwa emindenini engomakhelwane. Okwesikhashana, silinganisele umphumela oqongelelekayo wokufutha okuphindaphindiwe uma kuqhathaniswa nokufutha kwakamuva ekunciphiseni inala ye-Aedes aegypti yasekhaya ukuze siqonde imvamisa yokufutha edingekayo kanye nokuhlola ukwehla kokusebenza kahle kokufutha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lokhu kuhlaziywa kungasiza ekuthuthukisweni kwamasu okulawula i-vector futhi kuhlinzeke ngolwazi lokulinganisa amamodeli ukuze kubikezelwe ukusebenza kwawo [22, 23, 24].
Ukubonakaliswa okubonakalayo kohlelo lwebanga lendandatho olusetshenziswa ukubala inani lemindeni engaphakathi kwendandatho ebangeni elithile ukusuka emndenini i eyaphathwa ngezibulala-zinambuzane ngesonto elandulele (yonke imindeni i ingaphakathi kwamamitha ayi-1000 ukusuka endaweni ye-buffer). Kulesi sibonelo esivela ku-L-2014, umndeni i wawusendaweni elashwe futhi kwenziwa inhlolovo yabantu abadala ngemuva komzuliswano wesibili wokufutha. Amasongo ebanga asekelwe ebangeni okwaziwa ngalo ukuthi omiyane be-Aedes aegypti bayandiza. Amasongo ebanga B asekelwe ekusabalaleni okufanayo njalo ngemitha eyi-100.
Sivivinye isilinganiso esilula u-b ngokubala inani lemindeni engaphakathi kwendandatho ebangeni elithile ukusuka emndenini u-i owaphathwa ngezibulala-zinambuzane ngesonto elandulele u-t (Ifayela elingeziwe 1: Ithebula 4).
lapho u-h kuyinani lemindeni esendandatho u-r, kanti u-r yibanga eliphakathi kwendandatho nomndeni u-i. Amabanga aphakathi kwezindandatho anqunywa ngokubheka izici ezilandelayo:
Ukulingana kwemodeli okuhlobene nomsebenzi womphumela wokufutha olinganiselwe ngesikhathi ngaphakathi endlini. Imigqa ebomvu ejiyile imelela amamodeli afaneleka kakhulu, lapho umugqa ojiyile umelela amamodeli afaneleka kakhulu kanti eminye imigqa ejiyile imelela amamodeli ane-WAIC engahlukile kakhulu ku-WAIC yemodeli efanelekile kakhulu. Umsebenzi we-B Decay usetshenziswe ezinsukwini kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina ezazisezinhlotsheni ezinhlanu eziphezulu ezifaneleka kakhulu, zibekwe ngokwesilinganiso se-WAIC kuzo zombili izivivinyo.
Ukwehla okulinganiselwe kwenani le-Aedes aegypti ngomndeni ngamunye kuhlobene nenani lezinsuku kusukela ekufefweni kokugcina. Isibalo esinikeziwe siveza ukwehla njengesilinganiso, lapho isilinganiso sezinga (RR) siyisilinganiso sesimo sokufafaza kuya kwesisekelo sokungafafazi.
Imodeli ilinganisele ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kokufutha kwehle ngo-50% cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-28 ngemuva kokufutha, kuyilapho inani labantu base-Aedes aegypti lase licishe libuyele esimweni salo ngokuphelele cishe ezinsukwini ezingama-50-60 ngemva kokufutha.
Kulolu cwaningo, sichaza imiphumela yokufutha kwe-pyrethroid yangaphakathi enomthamo ophansi kakhulu ebuningini be-Aedes aegypti yasekhaya njengomsebenzi wesikhathi kanye nobubanzi bendawo yokufutha eduze komndeni. Ukuqonda kangcono isikhathi kanye nobubanzi bendawo yemiphumela yokufutha kubantu be-Aedes aegypti kuzosiza ekuboneni imigomo efanele yokumbozwa kwendawo kanye nemvamisa yokufutha edingekayo ngesikhathi sokungenelela kokulawula i-vector futhi kusize ekuqhathaniseni amasu ahlukene okulawula i-vector. Imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi ukwehla kwenani labantu be-Aedes aegypti ngaphakathi komndeni owodwa kwakubangelwa ukufutha ngaphakathi komndeni ofanayo, kanti ukufutha kwemindeni ezindaweni eziseduze akuzange kube nomphumela owengeziwe. Imiphumela yokufutha ebuningini be-Aedes aegypti yasekhaya yayincike kakhulu esikhathini kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina futhi yehla kancane kancane ezinsukwini ezingama-60. Akukho ukwehla okwengeziwe kwenani labantu be-Aedes aegypti okwabonwa ngenxa yomphumela ohlangene wokufutha okuningi kwasekhaya. Ngamafuphi, inani le-Aedes aegypti lehlile. Inani lomiyane be-Aedes aegypti emndenini lincike kakhulu esikhathini esidlulile kusukela ekufutheni kokugcina kulowo mndeni.
Umkhawulo obalulekile wocwaningo lwethu ukuthi asizange silawule iminyaka yomiyane abadala be-Aedes aegypti abaqoqiwe. Ukuhlaziywa kwangaphambilini kwalezi zivivinyo [14] kuthole ukuthambekela kokusabalala kwezingane ezincane zabesifazane abadala (inani elandayo labesifazane abangenalutho) ezindaweni eziphathwe nge-L-2014 uma kuqhathaniswa nendawo ye-buffer. Ngakho-ke, nakuba singatholanga umphumela owengeziwe wokuchaza wokufutha emakhaya aseduze ngobuningi be-A. aegypti emndenini othile, asinakuqiniseka ukuthi akukho mphumela wesifunda ku-dynamics yabantu be-A. aegypti ezindaweni lapho ukufutha kwenzeka khona njalo.
Eminye imikhawulo yocwaningo lwethu ihlanganisa ukungakwazi ukuchaza ukufutha okuphuthumayo okwenziwe nguMnyango Wezempilo cishe ezinyangeni ezimbili ngaphambi kokufutha kokuhlola kwe-L-2014 ngenxa yokuntuleka kolwazi oluningiliziwe mayelana nendawo nesikhathi sako. Ukuhlaziywa kwangaphambilini kubonise ukuthi la ma-spray abe nemiphumela efanayo endaweni yocwaningo, akha isisekelo esivamile sobuningi be-Aedes aegypti; empeleni, inani labantu be-Aedes aegypti laqala ukululama lapho kwenziwa ukufutha kokuhlola [14]. Ngaphezu kwalokho, umehluko emiphumeleni phakathi kwezinkathi ezimbili zokuhlola ungase ube ngenxa yokungafani komklamo wocwaningo kanye nokuthambekela okuhlukile kwe-Aedes aegypti ku-cypermethrin, kanti i-S-2013 ibucayi kakhulu kune-L-2014 [14]. Sibika imiphumela ehambisana kakhulu nezifundo ezimbili futhi sifaka imodeli efakwe ekuhlolweni kwe-L-2014 njengemodeli yethu yokugcina. Njengoba umklamo wokuhlola we-L-2014 ufaneleka kakhulu ekuhloleni umthelela wokufutha kwakamuva emiphakathini yomiyane i-Aedes aegypti, nokuthi imiphakathi yendawo i-Aedes aegypti yayinamandla okumelana ne-pyrethroids ngasekupheleni kuka-2014 [41], sibheke lo modeli njengokukhetha okunobunono futhi okufaneleka kakhulu ukufeza izinhloso zalolu cwaningo.
Ukuthambekela okuthe tyaba kwejika lokubola kwesifutho okubonwe kulolu cwaningo kungenzeka ukuthi kungenxa yokuhlanganiswa kwesilinganiso sokuwohloka kwe-cypermethrin kanye nokuguquguquka kwenani lomiyane. Isibulala-zinambuzane se-cypermethrin esisetshenziswe kulolu cwaningo yi-pyrethroid ewohloka ngokuyinhloko nge-photolysis kanye ne-hydrolysis (DT50 = izinsuku ezingu-2.6–3.6) [44]. Nakuba ama-pyrethroid ngokuvamile ebhekwa njengowohloka ngokushesha ngemva kokusetshenziswa nokuthi izinsalela zincane, izinga lokuwohloka kwama-pyrethroid lihamba kancane kakhulu ngaphakathi kunangaphandle, futhi izifundo eziningana zibonise ukuthi i-cypermethrin ingaqhubeka emoyeni nasothulini lwangaphakathi izinyanga ngemuva kokufutha [45,46,47]. Izindlu e-Iquitos zivame ukwakhiwa emigwaqweni emnyama, emincane enamafasitela ambalwa, okungachaza izinga lokuwohloka elincishisiwe ngenxa ye-photolysis [14]. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-cypermethrin inobuthi kakhulu komiyane base-Aedes aegypti abasengozini ngemithamo ephansi (LD50 ≤ 0.001 ppm) [48]. Ngenxa yokuthi i-cypermethrin eseleyo ayithinti amanzi, akunakwenzeka ukuthi ithinte izibungu zomiyane zasemanzini, okuchaza ukululama kwabantu abadala ezindaweni zokuhlala zezibungu ezisebenzayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi njengoba kuchaziwe ocwaningweni lokuqala, lapho inani elikhulu labesifazane abangewona ama-ovary ezindaweni eziphathwe kunasezindaweni ezivulekile [14]. Umjikelezo wokuphila komiyane i-Aedes aegypti kusukela eqandeni kuya kubantu abadala ungathatha izinsuku eziyi-7 kuya kweziyi-10 kuye ngokushisa kanye nezinhlobo zomiyane.[49] Ukubambezeleka kokululama kwezinhlobo zomiyane zabantu abadala kungachazwa kabanzi iqiniso lokuthi i-cypermethrin eseleyo ibulala noma ixosha abanye abantu abadala abasanda kuvela kanye nabanye abantu abadala abangeniswe ezindaweni ezingakaze zelashwe, kanye nokwehla kokubekwa kwamaqanda ngenxa yokwehla kwenani labantu abadala [22, 50].
Amamodeli afaka wonke umlando wokufutha kwasekhaya okwedlule ayenokunemba okuphansi kanye nokulinganisa komphumela obuthakathaka kunamamodeli afaka usuku lokufutha lwakamuva kuphela. Lokhu akufanele kuthathwe njengobufakazi bokuthi imindeni ngayinye ayidingi ukwelashwa kabusha. Ukubuyiselwa kwenani labantu be-A. aegypti okubonwe ocwaningweni lwethu, kanye nasezifundweni zangaphambilini [14], ngemuva nje kokufutha, kusikisela ukuthi imindeni idinga ukwelashwa kabusha ngemvamisa enqunywe yi-dynamics yokudlulisela yendawo ukuze kuphinde kusungulwe ukucindezelwa kwe-A. aegypti. Imvamisa yokufutha kufanele ihloselwe kakhulu ukunciphisa amathuba okutheleleka kwe-Aedes aegypti yesifazane, okuzonqunywa ubude obulindelekile besikhathi sokufukamela ngaphandle (i-EIP) - isikhathi esithathayo ukuthi i-vector edle igazi elithelelekile itheleleke kumuntu olandelayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-EIP izoncika ekuhlungeni kwegciwane, izinga lokushisa, nezinye izici. Isibonelo, esimweni somkhuhlane we-dengue, noma ngabe ukufutha izibulala-zinambuzane kubulala zonke izinambuzane ezindala ezithelelekile, inani labantu lingase lihlale lithelelekile izinsuku ezingu-14 futhi lingase lithelele omiyane abasanda kuvela [54]. Ukuze kulawulwe ukusabalala komkhuhlane we-dengue, izikhathi eziphakathi kokufutha kufanele zibe zifushane kunezikhathi eziphakathi kokwelashwa kwezibulala-zinambuzane ukuze kuqedwe omiyane abasanda kuvela abangaluma abantu abangenwe yilesi sifo ngaphambi kokuba bathelele abanye omiyane. Izinsuku eziyisikhombisa zingasetshenziswa njengesiqondiso kanye neyunithi elula yokulinganisa izikhungo zokulawula izinambuzane. Ngakho-ke, ukufutha izibulala-zinambuzane masonto onke okungenani amasonto amathathu (ukumboza sonke isikhathi sokutheleleka somuntu ophethe lesi sifo) kunganele ukuvimbela ukudluliswa komkhuhlane we-dengue, futhi imiphumela yethu iphakamisa ukuthi ukusebenza kahle kokufutha kwangaphambilini ngeke kuncishiswe kakhulu ngaleso sikhathi [13]. Ngempela, e-Iquitos, iziphathimandla zezempilo zinciphise ngempumelelo ukudluliswa komkhuhlane we-dengue ngesikhathi sokuqubuka kwalesi sifo ngokwenza imijikelezo emithathu yokufutha izibulala-zinambuzane ezinomthamo ophansi kakhulu ezindaweni ezivaliwe esikhathini esingamasonto amaningana kuya ezinyangeni eziningana.
Okokugcina, imiphumela yethu ikhombisa ukuthi umthelela wokufutha ngaphakathi wawukhawulelwe emakhaya lapho kwenziwa khona, futhi ukufutha kwemindeni engomakhelwane akuzange kunciphise kakhulu inani le-Aedes aegypti. Omiyane abadala be-Aedes aegypti bangahlala eduze noma ngaphakathi kwekhaya lapho bechanyuselwa khona, bahlangane kuze kube ngamamitha ayi-10, futhi bahambe ibanga elimaphakathi elingamamitha ayi-106.[36] Ngakho-ke, ukufutha indawo ezungeze ikhaya kungase kungabi nomthelela omkhulu enanini le-Aedes aegypti kulelo khaya. Lokhu kusekela okutholakele kwangaphambilini kokuthi ukufutha ngaphandle noma eduze kwemizi akuzange kube nomthelela [18, 55]. Kodwa-ke, njengoba kushiwo ngenhla, kungase kube nemiphumela yesifunda ku-A. aegypti population dynamics imodeli yethu engakwazi ukuyithola.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Feb-06-2025