Ngomhlaka-11 kuJuni kulo nyaka, i-Climate Prediction Center ye-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) yase-United States yakhipha ngokusemthethweni isexwayiso sika-El Niño - amagama asemthethweni athi "u-El Niño ufikile". Lokhu akuyona umbiko wesimo sezulu ojwayelekile waminyaka yonke. Ukuhlolwa kwamathuba okukhushulwa ngesikhathi esifanayo kubonise ukuthi amathuba okuthi lesi senzakalo sibe yizinga "elinamandla kakhulu" phakathi kukaNovemba 2026 noJanuwari 2027 aphezulu ngamaphesenti angama-63, futhi amandla aso "azoba phakathi kweziphezulu emlandweni ngamarekhodi ezinsimbi kusukela ngo-1950". Isilinganiso sesibikezelo se-European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sinamandla kakhulu: kulindeleke ukuthi izinga lokushisa lolwandle elingavamile esifundeni saseNiño 3.4 lizofinyelela ku-+3℃ ngoDisemba kulo nyaka, kanti ezinye izimo zize zidlule ngisho no-+4℃.
Ukuqonda ukubaluleka kwalesi sibalo: Isenzakalo se-El Niño esinamandla kakhulu selokhu kwaqala amarekhodi ezulu anamuhla senzeka ngo-2015-16, kanye nokwehla okukhulu kwesimo sezulu okungu-+2.6℃.Uma isibikezelo esingenhla sigcwaliseka, umcimbi ngo-2026-27 uzodlula okungenani ngo-15%, ungene ebangeni elingakaze libonwe ngaphambili.
Izingobo zomlando zisitshelani?
I-El Niño ayiyona into entsha, kodwa isikhathi ngasinye lapho kwenzeka isenzakalo “samandla amakhulu,” sishiya izibazi emlandweni wezolimo.
1997-98: Inkomba ye-Niño 3.4 ephezulu yalesi senzakalo yayicishe ibe yi-+2.3℃, okwenza kube ngesinye sezinamandla kakhulu ekhulwini lama-20. I-Indonesia, iPhilippines, neThailand zahlushwa yisomiso esinzima. I-Food and Agriculture Organization yeZizwe Ezihlangene (i-FAO) ibike ukuthi isivuno sezitshalo eMelika Ephakathi kanye nesifunda saseCaribbean sehle cishe ngo-15% kuya ku-20% uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. Amanye amazwe ahlushwa ukulahlekelwa okukhulu nakakhulu. Izindawo zokutshala ukolweni eBrazil nase-Argentina zehle kakhulu ngenxa yemvula engavamile. ENingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, lesi senzakalo saholela ngqo ekulahlekelweni kwamathani elayisi angaba yizigidi ezingu-15.
2015-16: Zombili zifinyelele esicongweni esingu-+2.6℃, okwakuyizinga eliphezulu kakhulu kumarekhodi anamuhla. Ukukhiqizwa kommbila eNdiya kwehle cishe ngo-4%, kanti ukukhiqizwa kwelayisi kwehle cishe ngo-1%. Imakethe yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia yathinteka, futhi intengo yelayisi yakhuphuka ngokufanele, okwaphoqa iNdiya ukuthi iqinise imikhawulo yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ngokuphindaphindiwe. INingizimu Afrika yahlushwa yisomiso esinzima, kanti umkhiqizo wamandla kagesi wamanzi weDamu laseKariba eZambia naseZimbabwe wehle kakhulu, okwaholela enkingeni yesibili yamandla esakazeka emazweni amaningi.
Ngo-2023-24: I-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) yabala lesi senzakalo njengesinye sezindawo ezinhlanu ezinamandla kakhulu ezike zaqoshwa. Lesi senzakalo, kanye nokufudumala komhlaba okuqhubekayo, sasunduza u-2024 waba unyaka oshisa kakhulu emlandweni futhi sabhebhethekisa ngqo isomiso sezolimo ezingxenyeni zaseMpumalanga Afrika naseNingizimu Asia.
Ucwaningo olukhulu lokuhlola olwanyatheliswa kuyi-Nature Communications ngo-2014 lubonise ukuthi izehlakalo ze-El Niño zivame ukubangela ukusebenza okuhlangene kwesivuno sommbila, ilayisi, kanye nokolweni emhlabeni wonke ukuba kusuke ebangeni elijwayelekile ngo--4.3% kuya ku-+0.8%, kuyilapho ubhontshisi wazuza cishe ngo-2.1% kuya ku-5.4% ngenxa yemvula ethuthukisiwe kwezinye izingxenye zaseMelika. Ngemuva kwale datha kukhona ukungafani okukhulu kwesifunda - umphumela awuxhomekile ekujuleni kwesehlakalo, kodwa kunalokho kuncike ekutheni utshala kuphi nokuthi utshala ini.
Ukuqagela kokwehluka kwesifunda ngo-2026
Imithetho yomlando isinikeze imephu yezingozi engaphelele kodwa ewusizo.
I-India neNingizimu Asia: I-India ikhiqiza cishe u-24% womkhiqizo welayisi emhlabeni. Imvula yaseNdiya inobudlelwano obufana nobencwadi ne-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) - phakathi neminyaka ye-El Niño, imvula yasehlobo ngokuvamile iba buthaka. Izehlakalo ezintathu ezinkulu ezinkulu ngo-1997-98, 2015-16, kanye no-2023-24 ngasinye sabangela imikhawulo yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe eNew Delhi, sadlulisela ingcindezi emazweni angenisa ilayisi emhlabeni jikelele. Umbiko wamanje wesixwayiso we-FAO usho ngokusobala ukuthi ingozi yesomiso sezolimo eNingizimu Asia naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia "iyingozi kakhulu", ngamathuba angaphezu kuka-50% kwezinye izindawo ezibhekene nesomiso.
INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia: I-Indonesia, iPhilippines, iThailand, iVietnam, neCambodia konke kungaphakathi kwendawo eyayinengozi enkulu ngokomlando. Uwoyela wesundu uzwela kakhulu - iMalaysia ne-Indonesia bangabakhiqizi abakhulu bawoyela wesundu emhlabeni jikelele, futhi womabili la mazwe awazange aphunyuke kunoma yiziphi izehlakalo ezinzima ze-El Niño esikhathini esidlule. Ukotini noshukela nakho kusesigabeni sengozi ephezulu.
I-Australia: I-Australia ibhekwa njengezwe elikhiqiza ukolweni elizwela kakhulu izibonakaliso ze-ENSO emhlabeni jikelele. Phakathi neminyaka ye-El Niño, imvula eQueensland naseNew South Wales ivame ukukhombisa ukuphambuka okukhulu emazingeni ajwayelekile, okubeka usongo oluqondile kukolweni wasentwasahlobo kanye nebhali.
IBrazil: Isimo siyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu. I-El Niño ivame ukuletha imvula eningi engxenyeni eseningizimu yeBrazil, okuzuzisa ukukhula kwesoya. Kodwa-ke, imvula eningi ingaholela ekwehleni kwekhwalithi yekhofi kanye nokwanda kwezifo zezinye izitshalo ezinamaqabunga. Umbiko we-JRC we-European Union ukhombisa ukuthi intengo yomhlaba wonke kakolweni oqinile kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke kakhulu esimweni sokuqina kwe-El Niño okuthuthukisiwe, kuyilapho amanani omhlaba wonke kabhontshisi kanye nokolweni obomvu oqinile wasebusika angase ehle ngenxa yezinzuzo ezivela ezindaweni zokukhiqiza zaseMelika.
I-East Africa kanye neSahel: Lesi sifunda silandela umqondo ophambene nowaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia - phakathi neminyaka ye-El Niño, imvula iyanda, kodwa esimweni sokuwohloka kwenhlabathi kanye nengqalasizinda ebuthaka, imvula enkulu ingase ingaholeli ekuvuneni kodwa kunalokho ilethe izikhukhula kanye nokuguguleka kwenhlabathi. I-FAO ikhiphe isixwayiso ngeSomalia, kanti ithuluzi le-INFORM Warning le-JRC lihlukanise amazwe amaningana ase-Central Africa njengasezingeni "eliphezulu lengozi yobuntu".
IShayina: Ngokomlando, umthelela we-El Niño eShayina uyahlukahluka ngokwesifunda. Iningizimu yeShayina yathola imvula eningi kakhulu, kuyilapho enyakatho nasenyakatho-mpumalanga kwabhekana nengozi enkulu yesomiso. Phakathi nenkathi ka-1997-98, kwaba khona isikhukhula esikhulu eningizimu yeShayina kanye nesomiso esinzima enyakatho-mpumalanga, okwathinta isivuno ngalowo nyaka.
Umqondo wokudluliselwa kwemakethe yamakhemikhali ezolimo
Ubudlelwano phakathi kwezehlakalo zesimo sezulu kanye nemakethe yezibulala-zinambuzane akuyona nje indlela elula yokuxhumana okuhle futhi kudinga ukuxoxwa ngayo ngokwezigaba.
Ingozi yokuncipha kwesidingo: Phakathi neminyaka yesomiso, ukuzimisela kwabalimi ukutshala kanye nokuqina kokutshalwa kwezimali kwabo kwehla, futhi ukuthengwa kwezibulala-zinambuzane kuvame ukuba ngenye yezindleko ezivame ukuncishiswa kakhulu. Ngesikhathi somcimbi we-El Niño eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngo-1997-98, isidingo sezibulala-zinambuzane e-Indonesia nasePhilippines sehle kakhulu. Lokhu kwakungenxa yokuncipha kwendawo yezitshalo kanye nengxenye ngoba abalimi banciphise ukutshalwa kwezimali kwabo ngemuva kokwehla kwemali engenayo.
Izinguquko zesakhiwo ezinambuzaneni nasezifweni: Imvula enkulu ezindaweni ezithile iholela ekwandeni okukhulu kwezifo, kuyilapho isomiso singase sibangele ukuhlasela noma ukuqubuka kwezinambuzane ezithile. Ngokomlando, kube nokuhlobana okuthile phakathi kweminyaka ye-El Niño kanye nemisebenzi yezinambuzane ezifudukayo njengezinkumbi. Ngo-2023-24, ukuhlanganiswa kwamazinga okushisa aphezulu kanye ne-El Niño kwabangela ukusebenza okungajwayelekile kwezinambuzane ezifana nezimpukane ezimhlophe nezibungu ezimakethe eziningi zasezindaweni ezishisayo.
Isitokwe sesiteshi kanye nengcindezi yemali: Eminyakeni enezimo zezulu ezimbi kakhulu kwezolimo, ukusulwa kwesitokwe eziteshini zokusabalalisa kuvame ukubambezeleka ngekota eyodwa kuya kwezimbili. Emakethe yaseBrazil ngesikhathi sokunciphisa isitokwe sika-2023-24, umphumela ohlangene we-El Niño ulethe imvula enkulu yendawo, kanti izifo zesoya (njengokugqwala kwesoya sase-Asia) kwezinye izindawo empeleni zaba zimbi kakhulu ngenxa yendawo enomswakama ophezulu. Lokhu kwahlukana kwesifunda kwabathumeli be-agrochemical baseShayina kusho ukuthi phakathi nonyaka ofanayo, izimpawu zokufunwa ezivela ezimakethe ezahlukene zingase zihluke ngokuphelele.
Ingcindezi ehlangene evela kumanyolo kanye nezibulala-zinambuzane: Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi ukufika kwe-El Niño ngo-2026, kuhlanganiswe nokuqina kwempahla eStrait of Hormuz ngenxa yesimo eMpumalanga Ephakathi, sekuvele kubeke ingcindezi ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kwamanyolo we-urea kanye ne-phosphate. Embikweni wakhe ngoMashi kulo nyaka, uPaul Donovan, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu se-UBS, washo ngokusobala ukuthi: “Ukuntuleka kwamanyolo we-nitrogen kungase kungabi yingozi enkulu emananini ezolimo kulo nyaka; i-El Niño enhle kakhulu.”
Ukuthembeka kwamamodeli esimo sezulu kuye kwehla.
Ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, ukuthembeka kwamamodeli esimo sezulu kuzokwehla. Umbiko we-JRC usho ngokusobala ukuthi uma lesi sigameko sifinyelela “esingakaze sibonwe”, imodeli yaso idlule ngale kokuthatha izinto ezithathwe emlandweni.°I-C ku-Niño 3.4 ayikaze yenzeke enkathini yamarekhodi ezinsimbi zomculo. Isenzakalo esifanayo ngo-1877-78 sabangela indlala yomhlaba wonke, kodwa asinayo idatha yesimanje enembile yokwenza isifaniso esiqinile.
Ngakho-ke, isikhundla salesi sihloko sithi: Hlela izingozi ngokusekelwe ezenzakalweni "ezinamandla kuya kwezinamandla kakhulu" ngaphakathi kobubanzi bamanje bamathuba angu-70% njengesimo esiyisisekelo, kunokubheja esimweni somsuka esingu-+4°C. Okokuqala sekuvele kunzima ngokwanele futhi kunezibonelo eziningi zomlando ongazithemba.
Esinye isici sokungaqiniseki sisekuphenduleni kwezolimo zaseShayina. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, iShayina ikhulise kakhulu ukutshalwa kwezimali kwayo ezixwayisweni zesimo sezulu sezolimo kanye nengqalasizinda yokunisela. Amandla ayo okumelana nesomiso awafani nakancane nalawo ango-1997-98. Isimo eNdiya sifana - uhlelo lokunisela ngemva kweNguquko Eluhlaza luhlanganisa ingxenye enkulu yezindawo ezitshala irayisi, okuthuthukisa ukuqina kwalo ezimweni ezingavamile zemvula. Kodwa-ke, idatha yomlando inikeza inkomba ecacile yendlela yobungozi.
Umcimbi we-El Niño ka-2026 cishe usuqalile. Umbuzo wangempela uwukuthi umfutho wawo uphezulu yini, nokuthi ingabe umphumela ohlangene womkhathi nolwandle uzowenza udlule ngisho namarekhodi omlando.
Kwezolimo zomhlaba wonke, lokhu kusho ukuthi ifasitela lokungaqiniseki kwesakhiwo lizohlala livulekile kusukela engxenyeni yesibili yalo nyaka kuze kube sentwasahlobo ka-2027. Embonini yezolimo, lokhu kuyisibonakaliso sokwehluka kwesidingo sesifunda kanye nokuhlolwa kokucindezeleka kokuzinza kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka.
Umlando usitshela ukuthi umthelela wezolimo wesenzakalo se-El Niño esimangalisayo uvame ukuba nesikhathi sokulibala sezinyanga eziyi-6 kuya kweziyi-12 - ukulahlekelwa kwesivuno sangempela kuvame ukubonakala kuphela ngemva kokufika komcimbi. Lokhu kusho ukuthi amanani abonakala emakethe njengamanje kungenzeka awazange abe nenani eliphelele kule ngozi.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Juni-23-2026
