Ummbila, njengoba ungowezitshalo ezintathu ezinkulu zokudla eShayina, unendawo enkulu yokutshala kanye nomkhiqizo ophezulu kakhulu phakathi kwazo zonke izitshalo zokudla. Unesikhundla esingenakuguqulwa ekuqinisekiseni ukuphepha kokudla kuzwelonke, ukusekela intuthuko yemboni yokudla kanye nomkhakha wokucubungula okujulile. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ethintwe yizici eziningi njengokulungiswa kwamaphethini okunikezwa kanye nokufunwa kwasekhaya nakwamanye amazwe, ukwehla kwamanani ngezikhathi ezithile, kanye nokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwezindleko zokukhiqiza, imboni yommbila ibhekene nenkinga yesakhiwo "yomkhiqizo ophezulu kodwa ukusebenza kahle okuphansi".
Kulo mongo, ngokusekelwe kudatha eyinhloko yemboni yommbila yaseShayina, leli phepha lihlaziya ngokuhlelekile izinkomba ezibalulekile ezifana nokukhiqizwa, amanani emakethe, ukuhweba ngokungenisa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe, isakhiwo sezindleko kanye nemali engenayo yokutshala. Lihlola ngokuhlelekile isimo sokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo, izitayela zokuguquguquka kwentengo kanye nezinguquko zemali engenayo emakethe yommbila wasekhaya, futhi ikakhulukazi liqhathanisa umehluko ezindleleni zokutshala ummbila kanye nemali engenayo phakathi kweShayina ne-United States.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwesimo Sokukhiqizwa Kommbila eShayina
1.1. Indawo ifinyelele ukukhula okuhle iminyaka emithathu ilandelana.
Ngokwezibalo ze-National Bureau of Statistics, ngo-2025, indawo yokutshala ummbila eShayina ifinyelele ku-6,744.12 million mu (cishe amahektha ayizigidi ezingu-674), ukwanda okungu-330.15 million mu uma kuqhathaniswa no-2024, ngesilinganiso sokukhula esingaba ngu-0.49%. Ngokuyisisekelo ibuyele ezingeni eliphakeme lomlando lika-2015. Kodwa-ke, izinga lokukhula liye labonisa ukuthambekela kokwehla kancane kancane, kwehle kusuka ku-4.99% ngo-2021 kuya ku-0.49% ngo-2025, okubonisa ukuthi isikhala sokwandiswa okwengeziwe kwendawo yokutshala ummbila eShayina sesinciphile.
1.2. Umkhiqizo udlula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-300
Kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-2025, ukukhiqizwa kommbila eShayina kubonise ukuthambekela "kokwehla kokuqala bese kukhuphuka". Uma kuqhathaniswa nokubuyela emuva "okubunjwe ngo-U" endaweni yokutshala, isivinini sokululama kokukhiqiza sasishesha futhi ukwanda kwakukhulu. Kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-2018, kwaba yisikhathi sokwehla okuncane, lapho ukukhiqizwa kwehla kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-264,992.2 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-257,173.9, ukwehla okuhlanganisiwe cishe ngo-2.95%. Kusukela ngo-2019 kuya ku-2025, kwangena enkathini yokukhula okuqhubekayo. Ngaphandle kokulungiswa okuncane ngo-2020, kwafinyelela ukukhula okuhle iminyaka emihlanu ilandelana, kwakhuphuka kusuka kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-26,077.89 kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-30,123.5, ukwanda okuhlanganisiwe cishe ngo-15.51%. Ngo-2025, ukukhiqizwa kommbila eShayina kwadlula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-300 okokuqala, kwabeka irekhodi elisha lomlando.
1.3. Ukuhlelwa Kukazwelonke Kwemboni Yommbila
Ngo-2024, ukukhiqizwa kommbila kwezifundazwe ezilandelayo eziyi-10 - iHeilongjiang, iJilin, i-Inner Mongolia, iShandong, iHenan, iHebei, iLiaoning, iXinjiang, iSichuan, neYunnan - kwabekwa ezikhundleni eziphezulu ezi-1 kuya kweziyi-10 ezweni lonke ngokulandelana. Umthamo wokukhiqiza wesifundazwe ngasinye wadlula amathani ayizigidi eziyi-100 - okwaba amathani ayizigidi ezingama-24089.16 (cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-2.41), okwaba ngu-81.68% womkhiqizo wommbila kazwelonke. Phakathi kwazo, iHeilongjiang yagcina isikhundla esiphezulu ngokwevolumu yokukhiqiza, yafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingama-4584.94, okwaba ngu-15.55% womkhiqizo kazwelonke.
2.1. Isidingo Sabathengi kanye Nezindlela Zentengo
Ngokombono wesakhiwo sokusetshenziswa, ngonyaka wezimali ka-2024/2025, inani eliphelele lokusetshenziswa kommbila eShayina lalingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-297.86. Phakathi kwalokhu, ukusetshenziswa kokudla kwaba yisikhundla esiphezulu, okulinganiselwa cishe kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-193.50, okulinganiselwa cishe ku-64.96% wokusetshenziswa okuphelele. Ekusetshenzisweni kokudla, ukufuywa kwezingulube kwaba cishe ama-50%, kanti ukusetshenziswa kokudla kwezinkukhu kwaba cishe ama-40%. Ukusetshenziswa kwezimboni kwalandelwa eduze, ngomthamo wokusetshenziswa olinganiselwa cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-83.40, okulinganiselwa cishe ama-28%. Eminyakeni yamuva nje, ngokwandiswa okuqhubekayo kwamandla okucubungula, ukusetshenziswa kommbila ezimbonini kuye kwaba nokuzinza okukhulu. Amandla okukhiqiza asatshalaliswa kakhulu ezindaweni ezikhiqiza ummbila eNyakatho-mpumalanga naseNyakatho yeShayina, kanti inani elihlanganisiwe lingaphezu kwama-80% womthamo ophelele. Ukusetshenziswa kwembewu kuncane kakhulu, okulinganiselwa cishe ku-0.43%. Sekukonke, ukusetshenziswa kokudla okuhlangene nokusetshenziswa kwezimboni kwaba ngaphezu kwama-92%, okuyiwona mandla amakhulu okuqhuba ukusetshenziswa kommbila eShayina.
Kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2023 kuya ekuqaleni kuka-2026, amanani ommbila wasekhaya ngokuvamile abonise ukwehla okuguqukayo, ehla kusuka ku-3.04 yuan ngekhilogramu ngoJanuwari 2023 kuya ku-2.5 yuan ngekhilogramu ngoMashi 2026, kanye nokwehla okuhlanganisiwe okulinganiselwa ku-17.76%. Phakathi nesikhathi esifanayo, amanani ommbila wamazwe ngamazwe nawo abonise ukwehla, ehla kusuka ku-2.82 yuan ngekhilogramu kuya ku-2.24 yuan ngekhilogramu, kanye nokwehla okuphelele okulinganiselwa ku-20.57%. Ukushintshashintsha kwamanani emhlabeni wonke kwakuvame kakhulu, futhi kokubili kwabonisa ukwehla komjikelezo wethrendi, kodwa izinga lamanani asekhaya ngokuvamile laliphezulu kunentengo yamazwe ngamazwe ezikhathini eziningi.
2.2. Ukuhlaziywa Kwamaphethini Okuhweba Ngempahla Nokungenisa Ezweni
Ngokusho kwedatha evela emasikweni aseShayina, ngo-2025, inani lokungeniswa kwemikhiqizo ehlobene nommbila eShayina lalingamathani ayizigidi ezingama-266.35, okwakungamathani ayizigidi ezingama-213 ngaphezu komthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe (amathani ayizigidi ezingama-53.38); inani lokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe lalingamadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingama-715, okulinganiselwa cishe ku-0.34% wenani eliphelele lokungeniswa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo kazwelonke ngo-2025 (amadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingama-207.41); inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe lalingamadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingama-404, okulinganiselwa cishe ku-0.39% wenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo yezolimo kazwelonke ngo-2025 (amadola aseMelika ayizigidi eziyi-104.16); ukuntuleka kokuhweba kwafinyelela kumadola aseMelika ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-3.11.
Ngokombono wezimpahla zokuhweba, ngo-2025, imikhiqizo eyinhloko yommbila engenisiwe eShayina kwakuyi-"corn, ngaphandle kwezinjongo zokutshala", "corn sweet corn eqandisiwe", "corn starch", "sweet corn engacutshungulwanga noma engagcinwanga ngendlela yeviniga", "corn powder", "corn for planting purpose", njll., ehlanganisa izigaba eziyi-10. Impahla eyayinomthamo omkhulu wokungenisa kwakungu-"corn, ngaphandle kwezinjongo zokutshala" - enomthamo wokungenisa wamathani angu-2,646,290.81 (cishe amakhilogremu ayizigidi ezingu-264.63) kanye nenani lokungenisa elingu-692,642,700 amadola aseMelika (cishe amadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingu-693), okubalwa u-99.35% kanye no-96.82% wenani eliphelele lokungenisa kanye nenani lokungenisa lezimpahla ezihlobene nommbila eShayina kulo lonke u-2025, ngokulandelana.
Imikhiqizo eyinhloko ethunyelwa kwamanye amazwe “isitashi sommbila”, “ummbila omnandi ocutshungulwa noma ogcinwe ngezindlela ezingezona i-acetic”, “ummbila omnandi oqandisiwe”, “amanye amafutha ommbila kanye nemikhiqizo yawo”, “ummbila weforage”, njll., ohlanganisa izigaba eziyi-10. Phakathi kwazo, umkhiqizo onomthamo omkhulu wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe “isitashi sommbila” – umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025 ungamathani angu-213,444.1 (cishe amathani ayizigidi ezingu-21.34), kanti inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe liyizigidi ezingu-81.9832 zamadola aseMelika (cishe amadola aseMelika ayizigidi ezingu-0.82), okubalwa u-39.99% kanye no-20.29% wenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nenani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo ehlobene nommbila eShayina ngo-2025 ngokulandelana. Umkhiqizo onenani elikhulu kakhulu lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe “ummbila omnandi ocutshungulwa noma ogcinwe ngezindlela ezingezona i-acetic” – umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ngo-2025 ungamathani ayi-172,079.29 (cishe amathani ayizigidi eziyi-17.21), kanti inani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe liyizigidi eziyi-181.123 zamadola aseMelika (cishe amadola ayizigidi eziyi-1.81 zamadola aseMelika), okubalwa u-32.24% kanye no-44.82% wenani eliphelele lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kanye nenani lokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemikhiqizo ehlobene nommbila eShayina ngo-2025 ngokulandelana.
3. Ukuhlaziywa Kwezindleko Nezinzuzo Zokutshala
3.1. Izindleko Eziphelele Nge-Acre
Ngokusho kwe-“National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Data Compilation”, ngo-2024, izindleko eziphelele nge-mu yommbila eShayina zaziyi-yuan engu-1,316.7. Uma kuqhathaniswa no-2023, okwakuyi-yuan engu-1,312.04, zenyuke ngama-yuan angu-4.66, okumele ukwanda cishe ngo-0.36%. Ngokombono wesikhathi eside, izindleko eziphelele nge-mu yommbila eShayina kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2024 zibonise ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo okushintshashintshayo. Phakathi neminyaka eyi-10, zenyuke kusukela kuma-yuan angu-1,063.89 zaya kuma-yuan angu-1,316.7, kanye nokwenyuka okuhlangene okungu-23.76%.
3.2. Inani Lokukhipha Eliphelele Ngo-Mu
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-“National Agricultural Cost and Revenue Data Compilation”, kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2024, inani lomkhiqizo wommbila ngehektare ngalinye eShayina libonise umkhuba ohlukile wokushintshashintsha "wokuqala wehla, bese ukhuphuka, bese wehla kakhulu futhi". Kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2016, inani lomkhiqizo ngehektare ngalinye lehla njalo lisuka ku-1,145.71 yuan laya ku-765.89 yuan, kanye nokwehla okuhlanganisiwe okungu-33.15%. Kwabe sekungena enkathini yokukhula ehlala iminyaka eyisikhombisa, futhi kwaqhubeka nokukhuphuka kusukela ngo-2017 kuya ku-2023, kwafinyelela esicongweni somlando esingu-1,466.43 yuan ngo-2023, kanye nokwanda okubaluleke kakhulu konyaka nonyaka ngo-2020, ku-27.87%. Kodwa-ke, ngo-2024, inani lomkhiqizo ngehektare ngalinye lehle laya ku-1,093.94 yuan, kanye nokwehla okukhulu konyaka nonyaka okungu-25.40%, okubuyele ezingeni lika-2015 kuya ku-2019.
3.3. Inzuzo Ngehektare
Inzuzo ephelele evela ekukhiqizweni kommbila ibhekisela enzuzweni yokugcina engenayo etholakala emisebenzini yokutshala ummbila ngemuva kokususa zonke izindleko zokukhiqiza njengembewu, umanyolo, abasebenzi kanye nemishini. Kuyinkomba eyinhloko yokulinganisa izinzuzo zomnotho zokukhiqizwa kommbila. Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-“National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Compilation”, esekelwe enzuzweni yommbila ngehektare ngalinye eShayina kusukela ngo-2014 kuya ku-2024, imali engenayo yokutshala ikhombisa izici “zokushintshana kwenzuzo nokulahlekelwa, okwandayo ukuguquguquka eminyakeni yamuva nje”: ngo-2014, kube nenzuzo encane yama-yuan angu-81.82, kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-2019, kube nokulahlekelwa kweminyaka emihlanu okulandelanayo (ukulahlekelwa okukhulu kakhulu ngo-2016 kwaba ama-yuan angu-299.7), kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2023, kube nenzuzo yeminyaka emine elandelanayo, kwathi ngo-2022, yafinyelela esicongweni sama-yuan angu-163.25, kodwa ngo-2024, yehla kakhulu yaya kuma-yuan angu--222.76, yabuyela ebangeni lokulahlekelwa okujulile. Uma sibheka idatha yenani lokukhipha, yize inani lokukhipha lehle ngo-25.4% ngo-2024, inzuzo eseleyo yehle isuka enzuzweni engu-154.39 yuan yaya ekulahlekelweni okungu-222.76 yuan, okubonisa ukuthi ingcindezi yezindleko ikhuphuke kakhulu noma ukwehla kwentengo kudlule kakhulu okulindelwe.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Meyi-19-2026
